Arafat's bones could reveal polonium poisoning

The body of Yasser Arafat is set to be exhumed tomorrow in an effort to determine whether his death in 2004 was caused by polonium-210 poisoning. Tests earlier this year found unusually high levels of the radioactive material on the former Palestinian leader's clothes and toothbrush, but it's still unclear whether Arafat was murdered. Could tests on his bones eight years after his death finally solve the mystery?

Why is Arafat's death such a puzzle?
When Arafat died at a French military hospital, his doctors could not establish a cause of death. Medical records obtained by The New York Times in 2005 suggest he died from a stroke resulting from a bleeding disorder caused by an unknown infection. But Swiss scientists working with the Al Jazeera news organisation tested a urine stain on Arafat's underwear for radioactive polonium-210 and found that it measured 180 millibecquerels (mBq). They also found 54 mBq on his toothbrush. A control garment belonging to Arafat measured just 6.7 mBq.

Those results were deemed inconclusive, as Arafat's possessions could have been contaminated after his death. However, after hearing a deposition from Arafat's widow, Suha, French prosecutors decided to open a murder inquiry in August that is still ongoing.

What is polonium-210, and what can it do to the body?
Polonium-210 is normally created in nuclear reactors. It is highly radioactive, and ingesting even small doses can be fatal. After entering the bloodstream, it goes predominantly to the liver and kidneys along with the bone marrow, says Patrick Regan, who studies radiation physics at the University of Surrey in Guildford, UK.

Former Soviet spy Alexander Litvinenko, who died from the first documented case of polonium poisoning in 2006, was initially admitted to hospital with severe diarrhoea and vomiting. His hair later fell out and his skin turned yellow, indicating liver problems before his death. Arafat was also vomiting and had flu-like symptoms when he went into hospital.

Why choose polonium-210 instead of another poison?
Polonium-210 can be rendered tasteless in a solution as a citrate, nitrate or other salt, making it easy to slip into a drink undetected. It also emits short-range alpha radiation, which cannot be picked up by airport scanners, making it very easy to smuggle into a country.

Who will exhume the body, and what will they do?
Arafat's widow Suha Arafat requested his exhumation from his mausoleum in Ramallah, to which the Palestinian Authority has agreed. Swiss, French and Russian scientists will take samples from Arafat's bones, says Tawfik Tirawi, who heads the Swiss-Palestinian team investigating the death alongside the French investigation. Arafat will then be reburied the same day.

Can they really detect a deadly dose after all this time?
Polonium-210 has a half-life of 138 days, meaning the radioactivity of a sample drops by half during that period. Arafat died more than eight years ago, equivalent to around 22 half-lives. That means just one part in 2.5 million of the original source would remain, says Regan. "That sounds tiny, but if he had enough in him to kill him, it is very measurable," he says. "If there is a significant amount above background in his bones, that would be pretty convincing."

Where would any purported assassins get polonium-210 from?
The main source is a specific type of Russian nuclear facility called a molten bismuth-cooled reactor. However, tracing the exact origin of any polonium-210 found in Arafat's bones would be very difficult, says Regan ? that is where the science ends and police work begins.

So if they find it in Arafat's bones, does that definitely mean he was murdered?
If investigators find elevated levels of polonium-210 similar to those found on Arafat's clothes, it would point to poisoning as a likely cause of death. "If he came into contact with polonium, it is likely to have been an attempt at poisoning," says Roger Jewsbury, a chemist at the University of Huddersfield, UK. On the other hand, low levels of polonium-210 exist in nature, so the presence of only trace amounts would seem to rule out foul play.

The results can be further corroborated by looking for accompanying natural radiation sources such as lead-210, lead-214 or bismuth-214, which are part of the natural polonium-210 decay chain and so would not be present if Arafat had been poisoned. Tirawi did not specify when results would be announced, but he says it could take months.

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